A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
